Approaching High Noon

Courtesy of Kirk Goldsberry

Kirk Goldsberry has mapped every shot taken in the NBA over the past five years,
in order to create a statistical baseline "average" profile of shooters in the league.

"We can see right away that Deron was good from his right and actually had a pretty off night from his left where he is usually pretty good. However, given his shot tendencies over the last few years, CourtVision would predict Deron Williams would end up with 30.2 points from Sunday night's constellation of shots. My models predict the average points per attempt from every player in the league, from every shot location, so I can plug in these 29 locations and predict an expected success for Deron from these locations. CourtVision predicted 30.2 points; Deron ended up with 36. So, Williams made 2 or 3 more shots than he would have on an average shooting night. In other words, he was +20% from the field that night" (Goldsberry).

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The rise of econometric analysis in professional sport makes explicit shifts that are taking place for working classes across a spectrum of industries. From now on, two figures will shadow every labourer whose output may be measured by some quantitative analytic: the Average and the ExpectedValue. As the econometric models continue to improve — or tighten — the length of the ExpectedValue shadow will continue to shorten, as if the klieg lights and fibre optics were approaching high noon.

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